Qatar 2026: North Field growth and surging earnings to drive the market.

A Stellar Macroeconomic Trajectory 

Qatar’s economic outlook for 2026 is highly favorable, with real GDP projected to grow at a stellar 6.1%, a significant acceleration from the 2.9% estimated for 2025. This growth is primarily powered by the hydrocarbon sector, which is forecast to expand by 12.1% as the massive North Field East LNG expansion project is expected to begin production in the second half of 2026. This project is expected to eventually boost QatarEnergy’s LNG output by 85%.

Qatar is expected to maintain a strong "twin surplus" position, with a fiscal surplus of 2.5% of GDP and a current account surplus of 10.2% of GDP in 2026. Furthermore, a stable inflation environment (projected at 2.6%) and a lower interest rate environment are expected to accelerate domestic credit growth and strengthen broader economic activities.

Earnings Rebound Led by Financials 

Following moderate earnings growth in 2025, corporate earnings in Qatar are forecast to grow by 8.3% in 2026. This recovery is driven by spillover effects from LNG expansion projects and strengthening domestic demand. The financial sector, which constitutes 59.7% of total market earnings, is poised for a strong 10.4% growth.

Individual bank projections reflect broad optimism. For instance, Commercial Bank is expected to see a consensus EPS growth of 12.7%, while index heavyweights like Qatar National Bank (QNB) and Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB) are projected to achieve 12% and 7% EPS growth, respectively in 2026. Credit growth in the banking sector will be supported by the scale of North Field expansion projects and a favorable interest rate environment. However, there is potential for profit margin contractions of larger banks due to the implementation of the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Pillar Two Corporate Tax in Qatar.

Attractive Valuations and High Dividend Yields 

Qatar Exchange General Index delivered modest gains of 1.8% in 2025. Due to significant market corrections in recent years, Qatari equities have become increasingly attractive in terms of valuation. The benchmark P/E ratio dropped to 11.9x in 2025, which is notably lower than the five-year average of 13.5x and the 2021 peak of 17.0x.

High dividend yields provide a substantial buffer, with the market average yield standing at 4.5% in 2025. Specific stocks in the energy and manufacturing sectors offer even more attractive yields of approximately 6%.

Navigating Risks 

While the overall outlook for Qatar Exchange General Index is positive, potential geopolitical escalations and a muted outlook for energy prices are key risks that could impact Qatar’s growth expectations and equity market performance in 2026.

To read the full Qatar Equity Market 2026 Outlook report visit Macro & Markets GCC - Qatar Outlook - January 2026