Executive Summary
Abu Dhabi’s equity market, delivered moderate performance of 6.1% in 2025, supported by resilient macro fundamentals and earnings-led performance. As we move into 2026, this report presents our outlook for the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange using a three-factor framework encompassing economic fundamentals, earnings growth potential, and valuation attractiveness. The macro environment remains supportive, underpinned by solid non-hydrocarbon growth, low and stable inflation, and strong fiscal and external balances. Corporate earnings are expected to remain the primary driver of returns, with aggregate earnings projected to grow by 9.4% in 2026. From a sectoral perspective, real estate is expected to outperform, financials are likely to deliver moderate performance, technology growth is expected to normalize, while energy may face mild headwinds. Valuations remain attractive, with P/E multiples below 5-year average of 17.5x and dividend yields providing an income buffer. Overall, ADX enters 2026 with a positive, earnings-led outlook, supported by strong fundamentals, selective sectoral opportunities, and structural policy support.
