Executive Summary
Global markets rallied for the second consecutive month in June 2025, helped by cooling tensions in the Middle East, progress on the U.S.-China trade deal, and some reassuring signals from the U.S. Fed. Emerging markets outperformed their developed counterparts, with the MSCI EM index registering a monthly gain of 5.7%, extending their year-to-date gains to 13.7%. With geopolitical concerns temporarily de-escalated, attention has shifted decisively back to trade policy—specifically tariffs. Despite the positive developments in recent months related to trade deals, would be premature to consider this the end game. Rather, we are very much in the thick of the middle game of a long and complex tariff chessboard. As we appear to be transitioning from an era of globalization to one of deglobalization, meaningful developments that include productivity gains, improvements in cost margins are likely to be undone even if a base tariff of 10% is levied. Once tariffs are formally implemented post-July, the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely become more vocal about inflation risks. While the timing of inflationary effects is uncertain, their eventual emergence seems inevitable—even if temporary. Certain sectors in key economies (Automobiles in Japan and Agriculture in India) are politically sensitive, making them impervious to purely economic arguments. Dumping would be another broader macroeconomic concern as the influx of cheap goods can displace domestic industry, deter foreign direct investment and reduce job creation.
