Executive Summary
Global markets ended April 2025 with mild gains despite having a volatile start to the month. Investor sentiment continues to swing wildly as the headlines were dominated by tariff wars for the second consecutive month. The U.S. economy has begun to bear the brunt of tariff wars, with economic growth forecasts being slashed to 1.1% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026. As companies start cutting jobs due to the fall in demand, unemployment rate is likely to pick up. Fewer imports into the U.S. will drive prices up, eventually leading to a spike in core inflation. The U.S. Dollar, which remained a safe haven until now, has started showing signs of cracking, with foreign holders of treasuries likely to swap them for Gold. The market expects the U.S. Dollar to depreciate further in 2025. Trump has been trying to influence the Fed for a while now. But with inflation pressures looming, the Fed’s independence is non-negotiable at this juncture.
