Study on the Impact of Kuwait's Banking Sector on the Kuwait National Development Plan (KNDP)

Executive Summary

Under Vision 2035, Kuwait aims to become a diversified, knowledge-driven economy and to reduce the government's role in development projects from 90% to 30%–40%. Recent reforms, including the public debt law, a minimum tax on multinationals and progress on the mortgage law, are expected to support economic growth. However, a higher fiscal breakeven oil price makes funding from banks and the private sector essential. Marmore projects near-term credit growth of 5%–7%, with upside to 7%–10% from the mortgage law and KNDP project financing, although lending to education, healthcare and renewables remains limited. Progress on the Vision has been slowed by gaps in policy, regulation, implementation and funding, while global peers show banks playing a central role in SME finance, digitalisation and ESG. The study recommends aligning lending targets with KNDP priorities, strengthening PPP and project-finance frameworks, expanding SME credit guarantees, and scaling green and digital banking.