The Export Ceiling: How Much Gulf Crude Can Actually Reach the Market in 2027

Executive Summary

The oil market has watched spare capacity and quotas for decades. They show how much the Gulf can produce. Since February 2026 the question is how much it can deliver. 4.5 mb/d of Gulf crude is produced but not reaching a buyer, held back by a blockade, a closed route and damaged equipment. Each part returns on a different clock, so even a full reopening of the Strait does not restore pre-conflict exports in 2027. Watching the routes, not the wells, will be the discipline in the future.